Lok Sabha Election, India is going to hold its election in 2024; the BJP government is facing numerous challenges. The 2024 elections are about the soul of India, at least the people of Tamil Nadu are aware that voting for BJP is a disaster for the very idea of India in 2014 there was a huge Modi wave however the predictions for 2024 are somehow in the favor of DMK. DMK now knows we are the only party that can oppose the ideology of the BJP because the BJP model is only about cronyism.
Lok Sabha Election, In the 2019 Election over 600 million Indian voters went to the polls and a significant number of them chose to return Prime Minister Modi and his Bharti Ajanta party to office for a second term to use an Indian thumping majority while expecting the scale of his victory has come as a surprise.
Lok Sabha Election
However, if we predict about the 2024 Election that it would be possible to defeat the BJP the answer is emphatically yes. If we divide India into two parts Electorally you take the East and the South starting from Bihar to West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh to Tamil Nadu, and Kerala which all together contain roughly 200 hundred seats.
you see what all BJP has got and at the peak of their popularity, they have ably won only 50 seats in 2019, the 150 MPS were elected in the past election they were not basically in the Formation of Government however if we imagine that the Congress or a combination of some of them realign themselves they could give a very tough completion for BJP government in the upcoming Election.
In the north and the West, the principal fight is between the Congress and BJP, therefore the Congress has to look at the region with a new lens and they have to realign with other parties to counter the BJP, if we move back years ago in 2015 the Grand Alliance was successful in Defecting the BJP, So the opposition parties would have to work on the same idea of 2015 to win 200 hundred seats out of 350.
Congress`s empathic victory in Karnataka securing a clear Majority of 135 seats out of 224th prompted a feeling of optimism in the opposition campus, especially in the Grand Old party which thinks that it was at a touching distance to defeating an unassembled BJP in 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
Rahul Gandhi`s 146 days long Bharat Jodo Yatra along with the party`s Paul promises seems to resonate with the people of the state and with this regional parties like TNC and SP which were opposed to any type of congress over its performance in the past struck a conciliatory note recognizing congress win which made a severe Dent to the war.
A recent Center for the Study of Developing Societies CSDS survey shows Congress is expected to get 30 percent of Votes in the Lok Sabha election while BGP is expected to get 37 percent of Votes in the Lok Sabha election of 2024. Congress is gaining entirely at the expense of others between regional parties, the survey projects that 28 percent of votes are shared from the regional parties which will be an all-time low if it happens and is also indicative of increasing bipolarity in the National Election on the lines of the state elections.
The Historical vote share average of regional parties in general elections from 1952 to 2019 has been 49 percent while for Congress and BJP combined 51 percent. The regional parties have always been an integral part of the Lok Sabha representing regional aspiration demands and issues.
Over the years when the BJP improved its position in Lok sabha Congress declined, while in contract regional either as part of an alliance led by either of these two parties maintained their vote share on average. The previous worst performance of regional parties has been around 43 percent in 2019 but even then it must be noted that regional parties are in power in 16 states and could be in contention in 353 seats for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Congress over the years has lost a Significant vote share some to BJP like the upper cast and the rest to regional parties like minorities the lifts and tribals who once comprised its core board bank. Many regional parties have grown at the expense of the grand old party or have been born out of anti-congress sentiment.
In Punjab and Gujarat, the congress lost ground in the 2020 state election however it could make a comeback in general elections like in Delhi in 2019 where a split board was witnessed, Utter Pradesh congress has been reduced to a non-entity and SB has immersed as main contender to BJP as minorities have helped it to create a Solid Muslim Yadav vote bank.
Both the governing parties and those aspiring to be governing party in 2024 are firing on all cylinders already, every single person you meet on the street wants to know who will be representing us. From Union Ministers to MPS to party leaders all in the BJP ranks have made it a mission to broadcast the Modi government achievements of the last nine years and seek “ some perk says Samarthan” while on the other hand, the opposition is on mission unification, even there is no clarity on the contours of this anti- BJP block.
One thing is crystal clear the 2024 election will be BJP versus all Parties in which the dominating party will be Congress for sure. The ETG survey explains the current voters of each party.
if we go individually to every state, we can have different predictions let get started with Rajasthan, talking about Rajasthan which gives 25 MPS to the Lok sabha. BJP this time around according to our survey will get 10 to 15 seats while Congress will able to gain 6 to 8 seats and others will barely be able to open their account.
As far as vote share is concerned the BJP would have to face retaliation from Congress and other parties if they agree to move together.
Move on now from Rajasthan to Madhya Pradesh. The substantial Chunk of 29 seats of which BJP projects to get about 12 to 15 seats, Congress about to get 8 seats, and the other would be able to get 3 to 5 seats looking to the current movement against BJP.
Moving towards Chhattisgarh another pole-bound state, it has about 11 seats of which the BJP would get 4 seats, and Congress would get 5 seats. Let`s move towards Bihar, the substantial chunk of 40 seats from which NDA will be able to achieve 15-20 seats, while MGB would be able to achieve 20 to 22 seats.
According to my assessment, the Congress alliance movement along with other parties would be able dogged the BJP in the 2024 election. The current situation and surveys that Indian Media is conducting are not so suitable for the BJP government. BJP government once again would be looking to conduct the false flag operation like a Pulwama attack to win the Election. Anti-Pakistan statements would again be on the top list from the BJP side.